Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
R+3.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 3.0 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 689 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 678 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-10-24 | 500 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 667 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 689 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 689 | R+1.0 | 2 |