Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | D+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-19 | 625 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2004-10-09 | 411 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-21 | 625 | D+4.0 | 0 |