Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+28.0 — a 96% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Montana Senate showdown emerges as Trump-backed Republican faces independent challengeMontana's Senate race features a three-way battle between Kurt Alme, Seth Bodnar and Reilly Neill after Sen. Steve Daines dropped his reelection bid.
Fox News · June 3, 2026
Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's raceLIVINGSTON, Mont. (AP) — Former state lawmaker Reilly Neill of Livingston has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Montana governor.
Associated Press · January 22, 2020
Mad scramble as 'wave of departures' set to crash on powerful congressional committeesThe 2026 midterms are still months away, but the fight to land a seat on Congress's two most powerful tax-writing panels is already underway, Politico reports, with dozens of lawmakers in both parties angling for a spot on the House Ways and Means Committee o…
Raw Story · July 6, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Sen. Steve Daines Commemorates Dobbs AnniversaryFIRST ON THE DAILY SIGNAL—Four years ago on June 24, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, sending the abortion issue back to the people through their elected representatives. On Wednesda…
Daily Signal · June 24, 2026
American Tributes – Steve Daines: Every Corner of This Country Tells a Story of Strength, ResilienceSen. Steve Daines (R-MT) reflected on America’s founding, his Montana family roots, and the enduring promise of freedom as the nation marks its 250th birthday. The post American Tributes – Steve Daines: Every Corner of This Country Tells a Story of Strength, …
Breitbart News · June 24, 2026
Republicans Ready to Give Up on Defunding Planned ParenthoodPlanned Parenthood is on the path to having its funding restored thanks to Republican chaos in Congress.The nonprofit health care organization could regain access to federal funds as soon as July 4, exactly one year after the Senate parliamentarian allowed Re…
The New Republic · June 22, 2026- We would like Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions to be removed, says U.S. Secretary of State
U.S. Senator, member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Steve Daines raised the issue of infamous Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions regarding the relations with Central Asian countries.
Globalsecurity.org · June 3, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2026-02-18 | 607 | R+19.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 2026-01-26 | 500 | R+24.0 |