Montana Senate
Kurt Alme (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Montana Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 24 points in the projection. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+24.4 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
Alme Holds Solid Lead in Montana’s Senate RaceA new Montana Free Press/Rutgers Eagleton poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 38% to 30%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 16%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme (R) 38% Seth Bodnar (I) 30% Alani Bankhead (D) 16% M…
Politicalwire.com · September 12, 2026
Exclusive: Air Force Veteran Fought in Wars, Arrested Terrorists and Child Predators. Now She’s Running for US SenateAlani Bankhead spoke to Military.com about a three-person race in Montana that could have major implications on Congress come November.
Military.com · August 20, 2026
‘I’ll Never Bow Down’: Democrat Announces She Refuses To Step Aside As Party Leaders Left FrustratedMontana Democratic Senate nominee Alani Bankhead announced Monday that she refused to drop out of her campaign, giving the Republican a better chance.
The Daily Caller · August 11, 2026
No Candidates Drop from Montana Senate Race Despite Pressure from DemocratsNo candidates dropped from the Montana U.S. Senate race on Monday as the August 10 deadline rolled past, making it a three-way race between Democrat Alani Bankhead, independent Seth Bodnar, and Republican Kurt Alme. The post No Candidates Drop from Montana Se…
Breitbart News · August 11, 2026
Montana Democrat Stays In Senate Race Despite Pressure To Drop OutAlani Bankhead refused to quit the race to clear the field for independent Seth Bodnar to challenge GOP nominee Kurt Alme in the open Montana Senate race.
HuffPost · August 10, 2026
Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate RaceAn exclusive Quantus Insights poll shows Republican Kurt Alme at 43.6%, leading independent Seth Bodnar by 19.3 points in Montana’s Senate race. The post Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race appeared first on Breitba…
Breitbart News · September 17, 2026- Alme Holds Solid Lead in Montana’s Senate Race
A new Montana Free Press/Rutgers Eagleton poll in Montana finds Kurt Alme (R) leading Seth Bodnar (I) in the U.S. Senate race, 38% to 30%, with Alani Bankhead (D) at 16%. Montana Senate Race Kurt Alme (R) 38% Seth Bodnar (I) 30% Alani Bankhead (D) 16% M…
Politicalwire.com · September 12, 2026 
Republican exploits divided field in Montana Senate raceThe failure of two candidates — one Democratic and one independent — to consolidate anti-Republican support against GOP candidate Kurt Alme is propelling him to victory, according to polling first shared with Semafor. Alme is currently winning 44% of the vote…
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
Exclusive — Kurt Alme: Montana's ‘Democrat in Disguise’ Seth Bodnar Runs on Liberal ActBlue Cash, Should Refund $1.76MMontana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Kurt Alme is calling on independent candidate Seth Bodnar to return the $1.76 million his campaign has raised through ActBlue, accusing Bodnar of concealing his political leanings while relying heavily on the Democrat …
Breitbart News · August 25, 2026- No Candidates Drop from Montana Senate Race Despite Pressure from Democrats
No candidates dropped from the Montana U.S. Senate race on Monday as the August 10 deadline rolled past, making it a three-way race between Democrat Alani Bankhead, independent Seth Bodnar, and Republican Kurt Alme. The post No Candidates Drop from Montana Se…
Breitbart News · August 11, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Montana Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kurt Alme (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+24.4.
What do the polls say in the Montana Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from Aspect Strategic (2026-09-15), showed R+30.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+24.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Montana Senate race?
Alani Bankhead is the Democratic candidate; Kurt Alme is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Montana Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Montana Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.