Montana Senate
Steve Daines (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Montana Senate race — about a 96% chance, winning by about 28 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+28.0 — a 96% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Montana Senate showdown emerges as Trump-backed Republican faces independent challengeMontana's Senate race features a three-way battle between Kurt Alme, Seth Bodnar and Reilly Neill after Sen. Steve Daines dropped his reelection bid.
Fox News · June 3, 2026
Former Montana lawmaker Neill drops out of governor's raceLIVINGSTON, Mont. (AP) — Former state lawmaker Reilly Neill of Livingston has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Montana governor.
Associated Press · January 22, 2020
How the Democrats Can Win by Losing in Montana and Other StatesAlani Bankhead, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana, should end her campaign and clear the path for independent Seth Bodnar to consolidate the votes of the state’s non-Republicans. Bodnar is polling better than Bankhead in head-to-head matchups again…
The New Republic · July 30, 2026
Thune headed for 'worst scenario' as MAGA grows and allies disappear: reportSenate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is facing the very real prospect of losing control of his caucus as his close confidants disappear and his chamber is overrun with MAGA fanatics.According to a report from Axios, what awaits Thune after the midterm ele…
Raw Story · July 29, 2026
Sen. Daines: Having Dinner With JD Vance Is Enough Oversight On Iran WarSen. Steve Daines exposed his ignorance on the US Constitution, budgetary matters and Congressional oversight when he told Fox Business he will vote against an upcoming Senate bill to limit Trump's war powers claiming it violated the principles of the Foundin…
Crooksandliars.com · July 24, 2026
'Not oversight!' Outrage as scrambling GOP senator cites dinnertime chat with VPSen. Steve Daines (R-MT) sparked ridicule Thursday after citing a dinner at Vice President JD Vance's home as evidence he was meeting his oversight responsibilities on the Iran war.During a Thursday broadcast on Fox Business, host Stuart Varney asked whether …
Raw Story · July 23, 2026
Graham’s death may not shake loose his long-sought Russia sanctions billThe News Many senators see no more fitting tribute to their late colleague Lindsey Graham than passing his bipartisan Russia sanctions bill as soon as possible. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to do it. “Slam dunks are getting tougher in the United States S…
Biztoc.com · July 13, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Montana Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Steve Daines (R), with roughly a 96% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+28.0.
What do the polls say in the Montana Senate race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from American Pulse Research & Polling (2026-02-18), showed R+19.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+28.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Montana Senate race?
Reilly Neill is the Democratic candidate; Steve Daines is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Montana Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Montana Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.