Actual result
R+16.4
Final polls said
R+15.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+16.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Valley Research | R+14.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | EVEN | 16.4 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 1228 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Valley Research | 2004-10-23 | 1200 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-01 | 1228 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-09-28 | 505 | EVEN | 16 |
| Valley Research | 2004-09-26 | 1200 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-09-08 | 1228 | R+10.0 | 6 |