Actual result
D+16.3
Final polls said
D+24.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+20.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 583 | D+24.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-11 | 587 | D+22.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-26 | 675 | D+17.0 | 1 |