Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+15.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | FM3 Research | D+17.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-25 | 630 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 2004-10-20 | 259 | D+17.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-11 | 622 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Impact Research | 2004-09-29 | 500 | D+15.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-26 | 600 | D+12.0 | 8 |