Actual result
R+4.9
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | R+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 1.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2004-10-27 | 400 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| University of Connecticut | 2004-10-12 | 411 | R+8.0 | 3 |