VotePredictor
past elections

Delaware House

Paul Donnelly (D) vs Michael N. Castle (R)

Actual result
R+39.4
Final polls said
R+46.5
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+44.0
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+44.04.6
2West Chester UniversityR+46.57.1

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
West Chester University2004-09-24590R+46.57