Actual result
R+17.3
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.8 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Bannon Communications Research | R+9.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+32.0 | 14.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bannon Communications Research | 2004-10-15 | 353 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Bannon Communications Research | 2004-09-26 | 353 | R+20.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-14 | 400 | R+32.0 | 15 |