Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+2.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.3 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Victory Research | R+8.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Research | 2004-10-30 | 400 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| GQR | 2004-10-26 | 500 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2004-10-06 | 400 | R+2.0 | 5 |