Actual result
R+22.5
Final polls said
R+22.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+21.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+24.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+18.1 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-27 | 638 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-10-23 | 634 | R+24.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-11 | 638 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-26 | 600 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-09-14 | 600 | R+7.0 | 15 |