Actual result
D+12.3
Final polls said
D+7.9
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville Courier-Journal | D+9.8 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+7.7 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-02-14 | 517 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-02-08 | 442 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2004-02-07 | 466 | D+9.8 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-01-25 | 442 | D+10.0 | 2 |