Actual result
D+0.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+4.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.2 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+7.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2004-11-09 | 300 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2004-11-08 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |