Actual result
D+19.5
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+18.3 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 652 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 747 | D+34.0 | 15 |