Actual result
D+19.1
Final polls said
D+30.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+27.5 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | D+30.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | 2004-10-18 | 623 | D+30.0 | 11 |