Actual result
R+26.8
Final polls said
R+26.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+24.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+19.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-30 | 492 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-26 | 383 | R+34.0 | 7 |