Actual result
R+14.1
Final polls said
R+14.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Belden Russonello | R+17.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+3.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 307 | R+10.0 | 4 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-10-18 | 316 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 307 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-09-24 | 300 | R+21.0 | 7 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2004-09-14 | 405 | R+3.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 300 | R+11.0 | 3 |