Actual result
R+38.8
Final polls said
R+37.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+35.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+35.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+43.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Valley Research | R+31.5 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 400 | R+43.0 | 4 |
| Valley Research | 2004-10-23 | 400 | R+31.5 | 7 |
| Valley Research | 2004-09-26 | 400 | R+33.0 | 6 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-09-08 | 300 | R+30.0 | 9 |