Actual result
D+11.5
Final polls said
D+12.9
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+10.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Valley Research | D+5.6 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Impact Research | D+23.0 | 11.5 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 430 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Valley Research | 2004-10-23 | 400 | D+5.6 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2004-10-20 | 400 | D+23.0 | 11 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-01 | 300 | D+32.0 | 20 |
| Valley Research | 2004-09-26 | 400 | D+25.0 | 13 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-09-08 | 300 | D+31.0 | 19 |