Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
R+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Lauer Johnson Research | D+2.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+16.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-25 | 664 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 664 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-27 | 600 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Lauer Johnson Research | 2004-09-18 | 401 | D+2.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2004-09-07 | 300 | R+16.0 | 11 |