Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
R+3.6
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+7.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+7.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+3.2 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Opinion Research Associates | EVEN | 9.8 | ✗ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 550 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 646 | EVEN | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 632 | R+3.2 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 649 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2004-10-19 | 500 | EVEN | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 617 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 520 | R+1.3 | 8 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2004-10-13 | 758 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-10 | 503 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2004-10-05 | 502 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 545 | D+0.2 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-28 | 579 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-18 | 500 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-16 | 600 | R+3.0 | 7 |