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Toss-up · 2004 President
Arkansas President
In the 2004 Arkansas President race, George W. Bush (R) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
R+9.8
Final polls said
R+3.6
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+7.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+7.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | R+3.2 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Opinion Research Associates | EVEN | 9.8 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-315
SurveyUSA2004-10-3010
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-282
Zogby Analytics2004-10-287
SurveyUSA2004-10-244
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Arkansas President race?
George W. Bush (R) won, by about 9.8 points (R+9.8).
When was the 2004 Arkansas President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.