Actual result
R+25.4
Final polls said
R+26.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+24.6 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+23.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+22.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+29.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-26 | 651 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-10-24 | 573 | R+29.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-10 | 595 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-17 | 600 | R+22.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 604 | R+25.0 | 0 |