Actual result
D+11.9
Final polls said
D+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.5 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 330 | D+3.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 327 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 300 | D+4.0 | 8 |