Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+0.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.1 | 5.9 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 330 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 327 | R+9.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 300 | R+5.0 | 11 |