Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+2.6
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.5 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | D+5.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Becker Institute | D+6.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | D+7.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2004-10-31 | 600 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-30 | 963 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-29 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-28 | 625 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-28 | 631 | D+4.5 | 3 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-27 | 617 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-26 | 758 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-20 | 617 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-18 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-17 | 600 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2004-10-16 | 400 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-15 | 510 | D+5.1 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-15 | 625 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-04 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-03 | 617 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-02 | 576 | D+6.6 | 5 |
| Becker Institute | 2004-10-02 | 397 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-09-30 | 538 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2004-09-22 | 400 | EVEN | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-16 | 600 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 500 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-09-15 | 538 | D+3.6 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-14 | 625 | R+9.0 | 10 |