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Toss-up · 2004 President
New Hampshire President
In the 2004 New Hampshire President race, John Kerry (D) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
D+1.4
Final polls said
D+2.6
13 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | EVEN | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.5 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Suffolk University | D+5.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Becker Institute | D+6.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | D+7.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
23 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
American Research Group2004-10-312
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2004-10-300
American Research Group2004-10-291
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-280
Zogby Analytics2004-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 New Hampshire President race?
John Kerry (D) won, by about 1.4 points (D+1.4).
When was the 2004 New Hampshire President election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.