Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
D+0.2
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2004-10-30 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-18 | 600 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2004-10-16 | 548 | D+1.6 | 5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2004-09-30 | 679 | D+2.9 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-09-20 | 600 | D+6.0 | 9 |