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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Alaska Senate
In the 2004 Alaska Senate race, Lisa Murkowski (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.0
Final polls said
D+0.2
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.6 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
McLaughlin & Associates2004-10-302
Global Strategy Group2004-10-187
Alaska Survey Research2004-10-165
Alaska Survey Research2004-09-306
Global Strategy Group2004-09-209
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Alaska Senate race?
Lisa Murkowski (R) won, by about 3.0 points (R+3.0).
When was the 2004 Alaska Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.