← all past elections
Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2004 Arkansas Senate race, Blanche Lincoln (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+19.4
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+28.0 | 16.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Opinion Research Associates | D+36.0 | 24.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-312
SurveyUSA2004-10-301
SurveyUSA2004-10-247
Opinion Research Associates2004-10-1924
SurveyUSA2004-10-167
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Arkansas Senate race?
Blanche Lincoln (D) won, by about 11.8 points (D+11.8).
When was the 2004 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.