Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+19.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+18.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+28.0 | 16.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Opinion Research Associates | D+36.0 | 24.2 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-31 | 549 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 644 | D+13.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 649 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2004-10-19 | 500 | D+36.0 | 24 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 613 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-10 | 503 | D+28.0 | 16 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2004-10-05 | 500 | D+28.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-28 | 575 | D+14.0 | 2 |