Actual result
R+41.7
Final polls said
R+33.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+32.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+33.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+33.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+32.5 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 573 | R+33.0 | 9 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-10-24 | 573 | R+33.0 | 9 |