Actual result
R+40.3
Final polls said
R+40.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+38.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+38.5 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Valley Research | R+38.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+43.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 1228 | R+43.0 | 3 |
| Valley Research | 2004-10-23 | 1200 | R+38.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-10-01 | 929 | R+39.0 | 1 |
| Valley Research | 2004-09-26 | 1200 | R+43.0 | 3 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2004-09-08 | 915 | R+37.0 | 3 |