Actual result
R+19.7
Final polls said
R+15.2
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+17.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+17.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+16.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+25.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | R+14.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | R+12.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-11-01 | 500 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2006-11-01 | 804 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-30 | 500 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-26 | 625 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 1014 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-24 | 500 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-21 | 500 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-18 | 500 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-15 | 500 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | R+11.6 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-11 | 500 | R+25.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-25 | 625 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-09-19 | 500 | R+20.0 | 0 |