Actual result
R+15.2
Final polls said
R+20.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+19.7 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+27.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-24 | 500 | R+14.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-13 | 600 | R+27.0 | 12 |