Actual result
D+40.0
Final polls said
D+51.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+37.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+37.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+33.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Aspen Media & Market Research | D+51.0 | 11.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen Media & Market Research | 2006-10-22 | 666 | D+51.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-11 | 625 | D+33.0 | 7 |