Actual result
R+16.6
Final polls said
R+8.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craciun Research Group | R+16.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+9.9 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hays Research Group | R+7.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group | 2006-11-01 | 400 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Hays Research Group | 2006-10-24 | 400 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Craciun Research Group | 2006-10-11 | 418 | R+16.0 | 1 |