Actual result
D+21.1
Final polls said
D+18.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-28 | 469 | D+21.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 404 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-19 | 468 | D+14.0 | 7 |