Actual result
D+25.0
Final polls said
D+23.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+27.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+16.4 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-28 | 611 | D+19.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2006-10-16 | 500 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-16 | 474 | D+11.0 | 14 |