Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
R+0.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.1 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Connecticut | EVEN | 3.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | R+9.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+10.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+7.0 | 10 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 976 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| University of Connecticut | 2006-10-19 | 805 | EVEN | 3 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-11 | 400 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-04 | 442 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 501 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| University of Connecticut | 2006-09-28 | 805 | R+5.0 | 2 |