Actual result
D+1.1
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.9 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+16.0 | 14.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mellman Group | 2006-10-23 | 400 | D+16.0 | 15 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-05 | 442 | R+1.0 | 2 |