Actual result
R+5.2
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | R+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | R+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+2.5 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+2.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greg Smith & Associates | D+4.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Smith & Associates | 2006-10-29 | 287 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-24 | 314 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2006-09-25 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |