Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+9.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+9.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | R+17.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+25.0 | 18.3 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1008 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Mellman Group | 2006-10-10 | 400 | R+17.0 | 10 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2006-10-08 | 300 | R+25.0 | 18 |