Actual result
D+6.9
Final polls said
D+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+5.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Richard Day Research | D+3.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+16.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | D+19.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+19.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1013 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Richard Day Research | 2006-10-21 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2006-10-16 | 600 | D+19.0 | 12 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-11 | 600 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-09-08 | 400 | D+19.0 | 12 |