Actual result
D+8.0
Final polls said
D+8.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+5.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+13.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mercury Public Affairs | D+0.7 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+16.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+13.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 977 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Mercury Public Affairs | 2006-10-09 | 300 | D+0.7 | 7 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2006-10-04 | 400 | D+16.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Mercury Public Affairs | 2006-09-17 | 300 | R+5.0 | 13 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-09-09 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 4 |