Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+3.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | D+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 538 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1023 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-21 | 519 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-07 | 512 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-09-09 | 1000 | D+11.0 | 6 |