Actual result
D+3.5
Final polls said
D+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.5 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | ASA Marketing Group | D+9.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cooper & Secrest | R+4.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | R+17.0 | 20.5 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASA Marketing Group | 2006-10-27 | 1002 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2006-10-07 | 505 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| ASA Marketing Group | 2006-10-04 | 638 | R+2.6 | 6 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2006-10-03 | 300 | R+17.0 | 20 |
| ASA Marketing Group | 2006-09-11 | 456 | D+1.3 | 2 |