Actual result
R+19.8
Final polls said
R+24.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State University Billings | R+23.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+23.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+24.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2006-10-12 | 409 | R+23.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | R+20.0 | 0 |