Actual result
R+16.7
Final polls said
R+13.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+13.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+22.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Momentum Analysis | R+5.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum Analysis | 2006-11-01 | 400 | R+5.0 | 12 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-18 | 350 | R+22.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-08 | 350 | R+24.0 | 7 |