Actual result
R+10.0
Final polls said
D+6.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | D+6.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+27.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSB Research | 2006-10-29 | 404 | D+6.0 | 16 |
| PSB Research | 2006-09-20 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-11 | 400 | R+27.0 | 17 |