Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
R+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | EVEN | 5.4 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 400 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Mellman Group | 2006-10-14 | 400 | EVEN | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-20 | 400 | R+3.0 | 2 |