Actual result
R+25.5
Final polls said
R+26.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.2 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+23.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+29.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-31 | 209 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2006-10-30 | 386 | R+29.0 | 4 |