Actual result
D+8.7
Final polls said
D+7.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.7 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | D+11.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+3.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2006-10-08 | 401 | D+11.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-24 | 500 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-13 | 600 | D+3.0 | 6 |