Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+1.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | R+1.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 685 | EVEN | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-29 | 498 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1004 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-16 | 445 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-09-20 | 400 | R+1.0 | 2 |